EPAS Mock-Election at USP College – Results and Analysis

Background

On 16 / 17 June, EPAS and politics students held a mock election for both staff and students across USP College . The election consisted of two ballots: a mock general election and a referendum. The mock general election involved the five main parties in England (Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats (Lib Dems), Greens and Reform UK) and, as in UK general elections, used the First Past the Post voting system (FPTP).

The referendum posed the question "Should the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union?", with two options available: "Yes, we should rejoin the European Union" and "No, we should not rejoin the European Union".

The voting and campaigning took place at different times on the Palmer’s and Seevic campuses. The Seevic election happened on Monday 16 June and the Palmer's election on Tuesday 17 June. The votes in both ballots were counted on 17 June.

Pictured: The party posters and leaflets outside the polling stations at Palmer's Campus (left) and Seevic Campus (right).

Turnout

In total, there were 213 votes, out of roughly 2,500 students and staff who were present in the college at the time of the election, equivalent to a turnout of around 8.5%. Of this, 142 votes were cast by students and 71 by staff, with an approximate turnout of 6.8% for students and 17.8% for teachers. While there were 89 votes at Palmer's campus, equivalent to a turnout of 9.9%, 124 votes were cast at Seevic campus (turnout of 8.3%).

The low turnout amongst students likely occurred for two reasons. First, limited information about the election meant that awareness was low. There were few posters advertising the election due to restrictions on the use of posters within the college and a PowerPoint presentation about the election that was circulated to teachers was not shown in many tutorials. Second, the election took place late in the summer term, only four weeks before the end of term. At this time of year, college attendance is lower than usual because students who have completed their GCSE or A-level exams no longer need to attend classes. The low turnout amongst students is consistent with national trends: young people are typically the age group with the lowest turnout in elections. For example, during the 2019 General Election, the 18-24 age bracket had a turnout of 52% compared to 81% for the 75+ bracket.

At 17.8% the turnout for teachers was more than double than that for students. This could be for a variety of reasons, including experience of voting and a greater awareness and understanding of politics.

The main reason for the low overall turnout may be a lack of interest in what was a mock election with no political consequences. Those students and staff who did vote were likely to be more politically engaged, and the results of the election are likely to reflect this.

The Mock-Election Ballot – USP College

Analysis

For the entire college, the Greens were, by a significant margin, the most popular party with 41% of the vote. Labour came second with 19%, and the Lib Dems third, with 14%. This means that a significant majority (78%) of students and staff who voted supported progressive parties (Greens, Labour and Lib Dems). Reform UK secured 14.1% of the vote, while the Conservative party received 3% of the vote, equivalent to 6 votes. 5% of all votes were spoilt ballots.

For the student vote, most of the results mirrored the college result as a whole, except some Labour votes transferred to the Greens with the Green's vote share increasing from 41% to 47%, an increase of 6%, whilst Labour's vote share fell from the overall college vote of 25% to a student vote of 19%, a decline of 6%. In addition, the Lib Dems gained slightly more votes (14% rather than 12%) and Reform UK slightly fewer votes (13% rather than 14%). Since most of the college vote consisted of the student vote, it is not surprising that the student vote was representative of the whole college vote.

For the staff vote, the results were different. Labour was the largest party with a vote share of 38%. The Greens came second with 30% and Reform UK came third with 16%. The Lib Dems received 7%, half that of the student vote, and the Conservatives came last with 1%. Spoilt ballots accounted for 8% of all staff votes.

The Mock-Election Ballot – Palmer's vs Seevic

Analysis

When comparing the two campuses and the difference between students and staff, we can see that there were some differences between Seevic and Palmer's campuses. The largest difference between the Seevic and Palmer's student vote was with regard to the vote for Reform UK: in Seevic their vote share was 8%, in Palmer’s it was almost three times that at 22%. This meant that Reform UK came fourth in Seevic amongst students, whereas in Palmer's Reform UK came second. The other main difference votes was with the Greens, which received 52% of all student votes in Seevic, compared to 42% in Palmer's. The Lib Dems student vote share was 5% larger in Palmer's compared to Seevic, whilst the Conservatives received an extra 4% of votes amongst Seevic students.

For the staff vote, Labour won across both campuses, albeit by different margins: in Palmer's, Labour won with 46%, compared to 34% in Seevic. Second and third place were also the same in both campuses, with the Greens coming second (28% in Seevic, 33% in Palmer’s) and Reform UK coming third (17% in Seevic and 13% in Palmer's). There were some differences between the staff vote across the two campuses in

relation to the Lib Dems and Conservatives: in Palmer's these two parties received no staff votes at all, while in Seevic the Lib Dems received 11% of the vote and the Conservatives received 2%.

The most noticeable difference was between the student and staff vote. In Seevic, the Greens managed to secure 52% of the student vote compared to 28% in the staff vote, while in Palmer's Labour won the staff vote with 46% but received only 15% of the student vote. There were also marked differences in the votes for Reform UK and the Lib Dems between students and staff. Reform UK in Seevic had a 6% share of the student vote, compared to 17% of the staff vote, while in Palmer’s, Reform UK received 12% of the vote of staff and 22% of the student vote. The vote for the Lib Dems varied from no votes from Palmer’s staff to 17% of the student vote at Palmer's. At Seevic, the votes fo the Lib Dems were more evenly distributed, with 12% amongst students and 11% amongst staff.

The Conservatives performed poorly overall, with their highest vote share being 5% in the Seevic student vote.

The Referendum – USP, Palmer's and Seevic

Analysis

Amongst those who took part in the mock referendum at USP College, a clear majority was in favour of the UK rejoining the EU. There was little variation between campuses, with only a 4% difference in overall “yes” votes between Palmer's and Seevic. The overall staff “yes” vote was 5% smaller than that of the students.

Thank you

Thank you to everyone involved in the EPAS election, including everyone who voted and all the EPAS and politics students who dedicated time and effort to run this event. This event was successful in getting meaningful results as well as in getting young people engaged with voting and politics in general. This will be the last major event of the academic year for EPAS at USP, so look out for any new events from us from September onwards!